![]() He plays roughly 70% of the snaps and is averaging over seven targets per game. Pat Freiermuth has been more involved than both Johnson and Pickens yet he’s over $1,000 cheaper. Pairing Pickett with both receivers makes for an affordable stack but is a bit too much of an investment in Pittsburgh. He gets a slight edge because he has caught two of Pickett’s three touchdown passes, but they’re equally viable. George Pickens has the same snap share and target share as Johnson. With so few options on this slate, Johnson is still viable as a one-off in Colts-heavy lineups. He’s only been targeted 10 times over the last two weeks while still playing over 90% of the snaps. Pickett is attempting a promising number of passes, but Diontae Johnson surprisingly has not been one of the primary benefactors. He played 90% of the snaps and with Jaylen Warren out he is likely to do so again. He carried the ball exactly 20 times in each contest and even managed six targets last week. Najee Harris has had a down year, but his usage over the past two weeks has been promising. Showdown production on slates with low totals depends heavily on touchdowns, making Najee Harris the stronger play in this price range. Pickett has thrown just three touchdown passes in his seven starts. ![]() His fantasy value hasn’t been hindered by passing volume, but it has taken a hit due to a lack of scoring production. Kenny Pickett has been attempting an enticing number of passes over the past four weeks. Kylen Granson – Illness – Questionable Pittsburgh Steelers Offense Quarterback The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Indianapolis to take on the Colts as 2.5-point underdogs. The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups. When rostership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario. The likeliest outcome is only one of infinite outcomes. Showdown is non-binary, but over time sound lineup construction will reign supreme. There may be times when Cooper Kupp finishes as the best play of the slate without Matthew Stafford, and other times Jonathan Taylor may rush for 200 yards while Matt Ryan and Michael Pittman still make the optimal lineup. The game theory is much more intricate than this one example, but it gets you down the path of thinking of showdown as an if/then rather than a raw projection. In this scenario, his quarterback may have also produced well. His running back likely received less opportunity, while the opposing team’s running back may have seen a boost. If a wide receiver who was projected for nine points instead earns 22 points, then there is a strong likelihood that his performance came at the detriment of a teammate, or even a member of the opposing team. This is because of the ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection. Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them.
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